As the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) braces for another winter, the 2025–2026 forecast brings a mixed bag of news: less snow than usual, but colder-than-average temperatures. While that might sound like a reprieve from the relentless snowstorms of years past, Torontonians shouldn’t be too quick to stash away their shovels and salt.
According to the 2025–2026 long-range forecast from the Farmer’s Almanac, this winter will be notably colder than average across Southern Ontario, including the GTA. Expect extended stretches of frigid temperatures, particularly in:
These cold snaps could bring frosty mornings, icy sidewalks, and bone-chilling winds—the kind of weather that makes you rethink every outdoor errand. The Almanac even warns of the polar vortex dipping southward, which could unleash brief but intense cold waves across the region.
While the cold will bite harder, the snow won’t fall as frequently. The forecast predicts below-normal snowfall for the eastern end of Southern Ontario, which includes Toronto. That means fewer major snowstorms and potentially less accumulation overall. However, this doesn’t mean a snow-free season.
The snowiest periods are expected to hit:
These bursts of snow could still disrupt commutes, delay flights, and blanket the city in white. And with colder temperatures, even light snowfalls are more likely to stick around—turning sidewalks and roads into icy hazards.
For residents of the GTA, this winter will still demand full seasonal preparedness. Here’s what to expect:
So while you might not need to dig your car out of a snowbank as often, you’ll still need to bundle up, stock up on salt, and keep your winter tires on standby.
Here are some practical tips to help you navigate this colder, drier winter:
One wildcard in this year’s forecast is the potential for polar vortex events. If the vortex shifts southward, it could bring Arctic air deep into Southern Ontario, resulting in short-lived but extreme cold and heavier snowfall. These events are difficult to predict precisely but can dramatically alter conditions for a few days at a time.
In many ways, this winter will feel familiar: cold, grey, and occasionally snowy. But the reduction in major snowstorms may offer some relief for commuters and city services. At the same time, the increased cold could pose new challenges, especially for vulnerable populations and outdoor workers.
For businesses, especially those in retail, hospitality, and logistics, the forecast suggests:
For families, it means fewer snowball fights but more indoor playdates. And for city planners, it’s a reminder that less snow doesn’t mean less risk—ice and extreme cold can be just as disruptive.
The 2025–2026 winter forecast for the GTA is a study in contrasts: less snow, more cold. It’s a season that will test your layering strategy more than your snowblower. But as always in Toronto, winter is less about what the weather throws at you and more about how you prepare for it.
So whether you’re a snow lover or a winter warrior, this year’s forecast offers something for everyone—just don’t forget your mittens.
Sources:
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